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Nothing will change for at least two years for Brits in Spain, and as the dust settles and agreements are made, there may be fewer reasons to be fearful.

The decision by the British electorate to vote out of the EU in last week’s referendum came as something of a shock to half of Britain and most of Europe, but amid the uncertainty caused by the vote, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (PM at the time of writing at least), spoke of the “calm and serenity” that must follow…

In a televised address to the nation, Rajoy moved to reassure Brits in Spain and Spaniards in Britain that the vote would bring about “no immediate changes”, adding that there would now be “at least two years from the formal notification” of Brexit – which still has to be triggered in the British Parliament – until any tangible changes are made.

“The security of the legal relationship between the UK and the EU do not change for that two year period,” Rajoy said, meaning that there will be no change to employment rights, freedom of movement, pensions, electoral rights nor the right to invest and buy property in Spain until at least 2018.

However, the next two years will undoubtedly be shaped by uncertainty as the UK seeks to renegotiate certain relationships with the EU. Few can say with any certainty how things will pan out, but once the dust has settled, tempers have cooled and the finger pointing has ceased, it is highly likely that a sensible deal can be struck that benefits both Spain and the UK. 

For example, Brits are far and away the biggest foreign investors in Spain’s property sector, helping to fuel one of the country’s strongest industries. So too in tourism, where Brits make up the largest group of holidaymakers visiting Spain.

With so much to lose if Spain were to erect too many hurdles, the chances are strong that very little will change here. The key themes to be discussed under this “Divorce settlement” are largely concerned with budgetary and trade issues, but the rights of UK citizens are also high on the agenda.

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Spain and the UK are intertwined on many issues, regardless of the EU.

In terms of rights to work, live and buy property in Spain, the maintenance of the status quo would appear to suit both nations, so there are a great deal of reasons to be cautiously optimistic here.

The alternative – that Spain would seek to make it difficult for future Brits to buy homes in their country – would simply play into the hands of countries like France, Portugal and Greece. Because Brits will still wish to own homes overseas, there may, in fact, be a situation where countries actively seek to attract British investors with new incentives and sweeteners: see the recently introduced ‘Golden Visa’ as evidence of how, when it comes to property, money talks.

Wider issues, particularly for expat pensioners, generally centre on pension and healthcare rights, and this is of course a concern. Currently, Brits who are retired and live in Spain see their pension increase each year in line with inflation – a deal agreed within the EU. Outside of the EU, this increase is unlikely to continue.

Equally, the reciprocal healthcare agreement that Brits in Spain currently enjoy will, in all likelihood, end – at least in its current guise. However, there may well be an “amnesty” for British pensioners living in Spain at the time of Brexit, or more favourable terms on cheaper health insurance should the UK seek to offer similar services to Spaniards living in the UK.

Which they will, if promises made by the Leave campaign are kept and the NHS receives a boost to funding. As anybody who has ever been treated in a UK hospital knows, the NHS is free at the point of use, and that is unlikely to change now that the UK is on its way out of the EU. Hence, the UK could quite easily argue that it offers Spaniards free healthcare already, and will continue to do so, so Spain should follow suit.

So many unknowns are already circling, and there will be more uncertainty before the certainty sets in. The British people have had their vote, and although the result appears to have surprised and shocked most of the continent, the wheels will keep on turning after a quick look under the bonnet to see how we move on from here.