No evidence for Brexit-driven expat exodus from Spain, says report

Brits living in Spain have grown used to the scaremongering of the British media when it comes to all things Spain-related.

From the headlines predicting economic Armageddon a few years ago to the more recent ‘fleeing in their droves’ pieces, the news outlets of the UK have nearly always been wide of the mark when it comes to gauging the mood among Brits on the Costas…

And with the EU Referendum looming this summer, the mainstream media in the UK has gone into predictable overdrive – with equally predictable inaccuracies relating to how Brits in Spain perceive the forthcoming EU vote.

Indeed, the very word ‘Brexit’ appears to partner ‘Expat’ on almost every Google search, and matters have not been helped by a recent front page splash – yes, front page, headline news – in The Times declaring “Expats quit Europe”.

That such an ordinarily sober and sensible paper such as The Times should wade into the issue with such an alarmist headline should already have sent alarm bells ringing. And ring they did… luckily, the tone was picked up by the eminently (on this issue at least) more reasoned Guardian newspaper, which took a closer look at the figures published by The Times.

The Times article pointed out that as many as 100 Britons are leaving Spain on a daily basis because of Brexit fears. However, a quick analysis of the official UN population data used by The Times reveals that such an exit rate has been sustained over the course of the past few years, with the actual number of Brits living in Spain remaining stable over that time. In other words, Brits have always left Spain, and in the past decade the numbers leaving have matched, there or thereabouts, the numbers arriving.

So has there been an increase in the number of Brits leaving Spain since concerns over a Brexit have grown? Well, according to data from Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE), outward migration from Spain among all foreign nationals grew significantly from 2009, around about the time the recession bit down hard on Spain’s economy.

Since then, the stream of people leaving Spain has been steady, and there is no indication in the official data that there has been a recent spike in the number of Brits looking to return home. In fact, data from the INE showed that 87,000 Brits left Spain for the UK in the year ending September 2015. This is only slightly more than the 81,000 who left in the year prior to that, and is actually lower than the ‘peak’ of 2010, when 92,000 Brits left Spain.

It is too early to say whether there has been an increase in Brits leaving Spain in 2016 ahead of Brexit concerns. That fact, however, has not stopped The Times from publishing a front page splash screaming just that. Of course there is uncertainty and trepidation among some expats in Spain over how their lives might be impacted by a Brexit, but to suggest that people have already begun packing their bags in their droves is disingenuous at best, and completely false at worst.

And of course, the real irony here is that if every one of the 2.5 million or so Brits who currently live elsewhere in the EU and fear Brexit voted for the UK to remain in the EU, then that would likely be a strong enough bloc to swing the vote in their favour.

This should be the real headline, not some hastily put-together scaremongering piece that not only fudges the facts but is specifically designed to sow the seeds of doubt. If there are any doubts whatsoever, then Brits abroad have the power to cast them aside by voting to remain in the EU come the referendum on June 23.