The Spanish National Institute of Statistics has just published its “Housing Projection 2018” paper, which predicts there will be upwards of 1.8 million more homes nationwide in 15 years’ time than there are in 2018, if current trends persist…
The forecast suggests that an extra 1,821,547 properties will be in residence in 2033 compared to today, representing a 9.8% increase over the 15-year period, bringing the total to 20,325,088 homes.
You may be wondering how on Earth these numbers have been divined with such exactitude. Well, the projection is partly-based on current demand for housing across the autonomous regions, but more so on evolving household demographics and population fluctuations over the coming years.
Over the same period, the demand for family housing is forecast to rise by 4.9%, which equates to an increase of 2,263,602 individuals. But more variables are in play than merely the gross population inflation…
For example, based on current trends, the average number of persons per household will drop from 2.5 to an estimated 2.38 in 2033. While this may seem a trivial detail, it is worth remembering that this ratio has gradually dropped over time from an average of almost four persons per household in 1970 to 2.9 in 2001… and now to 2.5 in 2018.
What this means is that more one- and two-bedroom homes will be required in 15 years’ time to satisfy the increasing demand for lower occupancy households. According to the report, single-person dwellings will see the highest percentage increase, since the proportion of the Spanish population living on their own is predicted to rise from 10.1% in 2018 to 12% in 2033, while three-, four- and five-bedroom homes are set to decline marginally.
The other significant aspect of this “Housing Projection 2018” paper is the expected growth in residential dwellings per region. As mentioned earlier in this post, the national increment is predicted to be 9.8%, with all but two regions (Castilla y León and Asturias) due to register boosted housing figures by 2033.
In the case of Andalucía, the projection is a slightly-higher-than-average 10.3% growth in the number of homes – buoyed, one would think, by its most densely-populated province of Málaga: home to our highly-coveted Costa del Sol.